2020年金融局勢(Business Insider預測金融科技:中國將于2020年發布數字貨幣)

鈦媒體注：近日，Business Insider 發布了對于2020年科技行業30大預測，其中包括對于金融科技行業的五大預測。Business Insider 認為，在2019年引起全球關注的Libra將不會在2020發布，但中國將發布數字貨幣，此舉將推動其他國家的發行計劃。

此外，Business Insider 還提出了其對南美洲金融科技發展的看好。其認為，2020年南美金融科技領域的單季度融資額將達到10億美元的歷史最高水平。

以下為Business Insider 報告原文，經鈦媒體編譯：

2019 marked a dynamic and eventful year for the fintech industry, with big tech players pushing deeper into financial services, corporate giants and governments alike turning their focus to digital currencies, and the industry shifting its attention from fintechs’ user growth numbers to sustainability.

2019年對于金融科技行業而言是充滿活力并且意義重大的一年，各大科技巨頭紛紛深入金融服務領域，企業和政府紛紛將重心轉向數字貨幣，整個行業的關注重心逐漸由用戶增長轉移到可持續性。

Further, both incumbents and fintechs have been exploring new business models to diversify their revenue streams, players like Robinhood and Freetrade have been disrupting the trading industry by transforming the rules of the game, and emerging markets — such as Latin America — have come to the fore as vibrant fintech ecosystems.

此外，業內外人士都在探索新的商業模式，以使其收入來源多樣化，Robinhood和Freetrade等公司已經通過改變游戲規則擾亂了貿易行業，新興市場如拉丁美洲已經成為充滿活力的金融科技生態系統。

Based on these developments, our proprietary research, and the trends we’ve seen intensifying as we head into the new year, here are our top five predictions for fintech in 2020.

基于這些發展、我們的專有研究以及我們在新的一年中看到的不斷加劇的趨勢，以下是我們對金融科技2020年的五大預測。

1、Libra won’t launch in 2020, but China will launch a digital currency and push other jurisdictions to follow suit — here’s why:

Libra將不會在2020年上市，但中國將發布數字貨幣，此舉將推動其他國家的發行計劃，理由如下：

Facebook remains confident it can deliver on Libra, but since the project has been plagued by criticism, we don't think it will launch in 2020. In June, Facebook announced its plan to launch its cryptocurrency, Libra, with 28 partners in H1 2020. Many regulatory bodies and governments have scrutinized the project since then — Mark Zuckerberg had to testify in front of Congress amid concerns that Libra could facilitate money laundering, endanger users' assets, and give Facebook more power, for instance.

Facebook仍有信心發布Libra，但由于該項目一直飽受批評，我們認為它不會在2020年推出。2019年6月，Facebook宣布計劃在2020年上半年與28家合作伙伴推出加密貨幣Libra。從那時起，許多監管機構及政府就開始仔細審查這個項目——他們擔心Libra可能助長洗錢行為、危及用戶資產并賦予Facebook更多權力，這使得馬克·扎克伯格不得不在國會面前舉辦聽證會以解釋這一切不會發生。

The loss of support from some of its key members, including Visa, Mastercard, and PayPal, has also put a damper on the project. But Facebook has already logged over 51,000 test transactions in November and insists it can resolve government worries and launch within H2 2020.

此前Libra聯盟的一些核心成員，包括Visa、Mastercard和PayPal等均表示不再支持這個項目，也給其帶來了阻礙。但Facebook在11月已經記錄了超過51000筆測試交易，并堅稱它可以解決政府的擔憂，并在2020年下半年推出。

This confidence is likely fueled by a strong track record of getting its way, including with the acquisitions of Instagram and WhatsApp, despite regulatory concerns. However, we think this time will be different given the slew of voices globally that have raised concerns and mounting antitrust scrutiny against all big tech giants — if at all, Libra won't launch in the next 12 months.

或許是包括收購Instagram和WhatsApp在內的利好給了Facebook信心，緩解了其在監管方面的擔憂。然而，我們認為這次將是不同的，因為全球范圍內有越來越多的人民開始支持對對所有大型科技巨頭進行反壟斷審查，即使Libra在接下來的12個月內不會上市。

Meanwhile, China will launch its own crypto in 2020, leading a number of other countries to ramp up similar efforts. Although Facebook's crypto plans are looking bleak, China's central bank has gotten close to launching its own crypto: It began researching the venture in 2018, and it was reported in August that the crypto was "close to being out."

與此同時，中國將在2020年推出自己的加密技術，并引領其他一些國家加快這方面進程。盡管Facebook的加密計劃看起來很黯淡，但中國央行已經接近推出自己的加密方案：它在2018年開始研究這項業務，今年8月有報道稱，加密技術“即將面世”。

We expect this will happen in 2020, as it has already started testing the digital currency in two cities. This will push an avalanche of other major authorities, particularly the Bank of England and central banks in the EU — with Sweden being a current forerunner — to take steps in that direction to avoid falling behind China.

我們預計這將在2020年實現，因為已經有兩個城市開始測試數字貨幣。這將促使其他國家的有關部門，特別是英國央行和歐盟各國央行（瑞典是當前的先行者）紛紛采取措施，避免落后于中國。

2、South America’s ntech funding will reach a historic high of $1 billion within a single quarter next year.

南美金融科技領域的單季度融資額將達到10億美元的歷史最高水平。

Fintechs in the region raised $704 million in Q3 2019, marking a record quarter in terms of funding, per CB Insights, and there have been four mega rounds so far this year, including Brazil's Nubank securing $400 million in July and Argentina's Ualá snagging $150 million in November. Investors in these companies include Tencent and SoftBank, while Goldman Sachs' special situations group has also set its sights on investing in the region's fintechs.

2019年第三季度，該地區的金融科技企業共獲得7.04億美元融資，根據CB Insights的數據，這是有史以來融資規模最大的一個季度。而今年迄今為止已有4輪大型融資，其中包括巴西的Nubank在7月份獲得了4億美元的融資，阿根廷的Ula在11月份獲得了1.5億美元的融資。這些公司的投資者包括騰訊和軟銀，而高盛旗下的投資集團也在考慮投資該地區的金融科技行業。

The large number of unbanked consumers, combined with an uncompetitive financial industry that's dominated by a few incumbents, have created a fertile ground for disruption, especially since smartphone and internet penetration across the region are accelerating. For instance, three-quarters of Brazilians used smartphones in 2017, and this figure is expected to tick up to 86% by 2025, per GSMA data.

大量無銀行存款的消費者，加上一個由少數當權者主導的沒有競爭力的金融行業，尤其是智能手機和互聯網在該地區的加速滲透，為顛覆創造了肥沃的土壤。例如，2017年僅有四分之三的巴西人在使用智能手機，而根據GSMA的數據，這一數字在2025年將達到86%。

Coupled with the effects of supportive regulatory initiatives — Brazil published guidelines for open banking implementation in April 2019, while Argentina's central bank authorities introduced an initiative in 2018 that enables interoperability between traditional bank accounts and accounts operated by nonbank entities, as examples — we expect South American fintechs to reach quarterly funding of $1 billion in 2020.

加上支持性監管舉措的影響——例如巴西于2019年4月發布了開放銀行業務實施指南，而阿根廷央行當局則在2018年推出了一項舉措，以實現傳統銀行賬戶與非銀行實體運營賬戶之間的互操作性——我們預計南美金融科技公司將在2020年獲得10億美元的季度融資。

南美洲具有VC背景的金融科技投資基金規模

3、A handful of the most innovative incumbent insurers will lead the way on Insurance-as-a- Service (IaaS).

少數最具創新精神的保險公司將引領“保險即服務(IaaS)”的發展。

Developments in banking are often good indicators of upcoming trends in the insurance industry. One trend that accelerated in the banking space in 2019 was Banking-as-a-Service (BaaS), which saw neobanks and incumbents — including BBVA and Starling — open up their APIs to let third parties build banking solutions using their licensing and underlying infrastructure. And as a number of full-stack insurtechs, which have their own insurance licenses and own the whole value chain, encroach on incumbent insurers' turf — much like neobanks are doing in the banking space — we expect to see a few insurers turn this threat into an opportunity by allowing both incumbents and startups to leverage their technology and licensing to replace legacy IT or build innovative business-to- customer solutions.

銀行業的發展情況往往是判斷保險業未來趨勢的良好指標。2019年銀行業加速發展的一個趨勢是銀行即服務（BaaS），新銀行和現有企業（包括BBVA和Starling）開放了他們的API，讓第三方利用其許可證和基礎設施構建銀行解決方案。而且，隨著一些擁有自己的保險執照、擁有整個價值鏈的全套保險技術公司占領了現有保險公司的地盤，就像新銀行在銀行領域所做的那樣，我們預計會有幾家保險公司通過允許在職者、初創企業等利用他們的技術和許可來取代傳統的IT或構建創新的企業對客戶解決方案，將這一挑戰轉化為機遇。

We expect Munich Re, which invested$250 million in insurtech Next Insurance earlier this year, and Zurich Insurance, which has already struck a number of fintech partnerships, to take this approach next year, while Allianz will lead this trend, having recently announced an IaaS offering with Microsoft. By adopting this model, insurers will be able to generate new revenue streams and turn some competitors into customers, while staying on top of the latest digital trends in the industry.

我們預計，今年早些時候在保險科技領域投資2.5億美元的慕尼黑再保險公司和已經達成多項金融科技合作伙伴關系的蘇黎世保險公司明年將采取這一做法，而最近已宣布與微軟合作推出IaaS產品的安聯將引領這一趨勢。通過采用這種模式，保險公司將能夠創造新的收入來源，并將一些競爭對手轉變為客戶，同時掌握行業最新的數字趨勢。

4、E*Trade will be snapped up in 2020 — but not by Goldman Sachs.

券商巨頭E*Trade將被收購，但收購者不是高盛。

Players like Robinhood have shaken up the US online investment space by undercutting incumbent brokerage firms with their fee- free commission models. This led Charles Schwab to become the first major online broker to eliminate its $4.95 per-trade fee in October — a move that was quickly matched by TD Ameritrade, E*Trade, and Fidelity. Now, the industry is bracing for a wave of consolidation as eliminated fees force incumbents to seek ways to cut costs to offset declining revenues.

像羅比尼奧這樣的公司已經用他們的免費傭金模式削弱了現有的經紀公司，從而動搖了美國的在線投資空間。這使得查爾斯施瓦布（Charles Schwab）成為第一家在10月份取消每筆4.95美元交易費的大型在線經紀公司，而TD-Ameritrade、E*trade和Fidelity也迅速采取了這一舉措。現在，這個行業正準備迎接一波浪潮——合并被取消的費用迫使在職者尋求削減成本的方法來抵消收入的下降。

And with Charles Schwab having agreed to acquire TD Ameritrade for $26 billion in late November, we think E*Trade is the next most likely acquisition target: The smaller peer will need to look for potential buyers following the announced deal between the US’ two biggest publicly traded discount brokers.

鑒于查爾斯施瓦布（Charles Schwab）已于11月底同意以260億美元收購TD Ameritrade，我們認為E*Trade是下一個最有可能的收購目標：規模較小的同行在美國兩家最大的上市折扣經紀公司宣布交易后，將需要尋找潛在買家。

But while Goldman Sachs has been rumored to be looking into an E*Trade acquisition, it’s reportedly also exploring a move for US Bancorp. We believe pursuing a merger with the latter makes more sense for Goldman since the deal would allow it to scale faster, given US Bancorp’s size, and avoid getting too invested in the battered discount trading space.

但高盛被傳聞正在盡調收購案時，也有報道稱其還在為美國銀行集團（Bancorp）探索一項舉措。我們認為，與后者合并對高盛更有意義，因為考慮到我們銀行集團的規模，這項交易將使高盛能夠更快地擴大規模，避免在遭受重創的折價交易領域獲得過多投資。

5、In the aftermath of WeWork’s failed IPO, Lemonade will have to contend with another year of staying private.

受WeWork IPO失敗影響，Lemonade IPO計劃將推遲一年。

News about the US insurtech unicorn wanting to go public first emerged in June this year, when Israeli news outlet CTech reported that Lemonade was looking to raise over $500 million during an IPO in New York. However, in November, sources said that the insurtech postponed plans to go public this year — which it wanted to do as early as August or September 2019 — amid concerns over how fast-growing fintechsare perceived by the market.

有關美國保險科技獨角獸（insuretech unicorn）希望上市的消息最早出現在今年6月，當時以色列新聞機構CTech報道稱，檸檬水公司（Lemonade）希望在紐約IPO期間籌集逾5億美元資金。然而，在11月，消息人士表示，Insuretech推遲了今年上市的計劃，該公司最早希望在2019年8月或9月上市，因為人們擔心Fintech的增長速度有多快被市場所感知。

WeWork's failed IPO earlier this year likely triggered the decision, as the company's potential float was met with concern around its business model and ability to become profitable. While the insurtech made real strides toward building a profitable business this year — it reduced its loss ratio from 99% at the end of 2018 to 78% in Q3 2019 — it still has a long road to sustainability, with the industry average falling between 65% and 70%, so we don't anticipate the insurtech to go public in the next 12 months.

今年早些時候，WeWork的IPO失敗可能引發這一決定，由于公司的潛在浮虧受到了外界對其商業模式和盈利能力的關注。雖然Insuretech今年在建立盈利業務方面取得了實質性進展——它將虧損率從2018年底的99%降至2019年第三季度的78%——但鑒于行業平均水平在65%至70%之間，它的可持續性仍任重道遠，因此我們預計Insuretech不會在未來12個月內上市。

（本文首發鈦媒體，編譯 | 石萬佳）